Wednesday, July 7, 2010

NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF BEARD

Yes, Rockies fans, that was nine runs in the bottom of the 9th, one of the Beardliest innings in Rockies history. Tacos for everyone, and an unexpected "W" for the Rockies. We owe a big "thank-you!" to Tony LaRussa, for his inexplicable decision to leave his foundering closer in the game while the Rockies' lefties stroked hit after hit towards a hapless Randy Winn in right field.

As I said a few weeks, ago, my goal this year is to focus on Ryan Spilborghs, and let the rest of the team find their inner -- and outer -- Beards. They appear to be doing just that, at least at the plate. As Rockies starters begin to falter, the offense is starting to get going. Dexter Fowler, having been bored in AAA last month, has apparently decided he never, ever wants to go back. Barmes is celebrating his annual "Hitting Month." Herrera, called up to play 2B so Barmes can replace the injured Tulo at shortstop, is the sort of situational contact hitter this team has badly needed ever since Todd Helton retired. Giambi is starting to pull his substantial weight as Helton's backup, and Carlos Gonzalez looks like he gets better every week. And let's not forget last night's biggest hero, Seth Smith's Beard.

Yes, the Beard Factor for the Rockies is very high right now, despite Giambi's new clean-shaven look. Leading the way is Smith, whose beard rivals even Spilly's at its ferocious fullest. Other bearded Rockies in the lineup lately include Chris Ianetta (another big contributor to last night's victory), shoulda-been All Star Miguel Olivo, Gonzalez, Fowler, Ian Stewart, Spliborghs, and of course, Todd Helton. The more Rockies buy into this beard thing, the more games they will win. The universe understands the Power of the Beard, and the Rockies are beginning to see it, too.




A grumpy aside about Ubaldo Jimenez: Jeff Passan, the high school sophomore  in charge of Yahoo's baseball coverage, has jumped on the national bail-out-of-Ubaldo's-bandwagon bandwagon, and is calling Josh Johnson the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young award. Taking nothing away from the year Johnson is having -- because he's been absolutely dominant and certainly deserves to be in the Cy Young conversation -- but the guy doesn't have to pitch half his games at Coors Field.

Passan and other national media "experts" -- many of whom are the same people who kept Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Holliday from MVP honors due to having Coors Field-inflated hitting stats -- are now pointing at Ubaldo's Coors Field-inflated pitching stats as proof that the Ubaldo-for-Cy-Young talk from earlier in the year was premature. Isn't it ironic?

It's true that in four of Ubaldo's last five starts, he's given up three or more runs. Is this cause for alarm? Let's look at those games a bit more closely... first of all, three of those four games were at Coors Field, and that's a factor that must be taken into consideration. Even with the humidor, Coors Field can still be an extremely unforgiving place for a pitcher... just ask Ryan Franklin. Passan says smugly (and ungrammatically) of Ubaldo, "Adam Wainright has a better ERA than him." This is true, but when adjusted for the park factor, Ubaldo is comfortably ahead of Wainwright (another guy who doesn't have to pitch half his games at Coors Field), and right behind Johnson. Jimenez leads MLB pitchers in WPA (win probability added), and is second to Johnson (in most cases, right on his heels) in every other park-adjusted pitching stat.

Now, if you're an old-school guy and you don't go for all the fancy adjusted stats, then let's just look at each guy's ERA on the road. Johnson's is an excellent 2.43. Ubaldo's is more than a run lower than that, at 1.23.

Yes, Jimenez' ERA has gone up over his last few starts. Passan puts it this way: "Lately, he's been getting hammered."  Hammered, huh? A closer look reveals how wrong Passan is: the first of those four games, against Toronto, was played in a downpour. The second, against Boston, Ubaldo was pitching with the flu. In the third game, on the road against Los Padres, he took a no-hitter into the 6th inning, before apparently wearing down so completely and instantaneously that we might fairly question whether he hadn't regained 100% of his strength post-flu. Finally, in the most recent game against the Giants, Ubaldo was frustrated by an ump's call, which led to a Very Bad Inning... frankly, that one's all on him.

Basically, when not battling the flu and not pitching in Deadliest Catch-type weather, Ubaldo has been pretty darn good over the last month. Any pitcher can have a bad inning or two over five starts, but do these national writers actually watch these games? Hell, no. They look at the numbers, and the numbers apparently suggest that Ubaldo is getting "hammered," because his ERA is up an entire run, all the way up to 2.27.

There is a double standard applied to the Rockies because of Coors Field, but unfortunately for Rockies players, the double-standard works against them full-time, whether they're pitching or hitting. If Josh Johnson is your guy for the Cy Young so far, then fine, it's tough to argue. But when you dismiss what Ubaldo has done this year, while pitching in what is still the most difficult park to pitch in the Major Leagues, you just look like a full-fledged idiot.

1 comment:

Some Guy said...

Ubaldo's line for the day—8 innings pitched, 3 hits, 1 earned run, 6 strikeouts, and the win—may not prove Jeff Passan wrong . . . but it sure doesn't help him look smart, either.

Josh Johnson sounds like he's doing just fine, but I'd have to say that a 15-1 pitcher is probably helping his team a bit more than a 9-3 pitcher.