A Few Predictions from The Beard

Hello my dearest readers! Time for a few predictions. "What?!?" I hear you say. "Doesn't The Beard HATE predictions? Doesn't he consider them useless and silly filler for newspapers/web sites?" You are absolutely correct, The Beard thinks predictions are stupid. What are especially useless are preseason predictions. My preseason predictions usually go like this (and I am 100% correct every single year): most teams expected to be good will be good. Most teams expected to be average will be average, and most teams expected to be bad will be bad. Some teams will surprise us one way or another. END PREDICTION.

However, the Rockies find themselves this morning 2.5 games back in both the NL West and Wild Card standings, and while not necessarily a prediction, one can take a look at the standings, and the teams involved, and see a couple of routes the Rockies can take to make the postseason for the third time in four years.

NL WEST

The NL West is currently led by the San Francisco Giants, playing very good baseball. Half a game back are the San Diego Padres, not playing very good baseball. 2.5 games back are the Rockies, playing very good baseball. I will not predict the winner of the NL West, but I predict it will not be the San Diego Padres.

The Padres have had a great season, but it's been held together with pitching. Young pitching. Young pitching wears down at the ends of seasons, and that's what we are seeing here, as the Padres have struggled mightily, and unless the Padres suddenly, after five months, begin to hit, they will play .500 ball for the rest of the year. Sandwiched between two surging teams, .500 ball won't cut it, and the Padres will finish 2nd or 3rd place in the NL West, despite being at or near the top spot for the bulk of the year.

I will also predict that the 4th-place Dodgers, useless in every way since the All-Star break, will become relevant. One way or another, the Dodgers will be the deciding factor on who finishes 2nd in the division. LA has six games remaining with Colorado, and three with San Diego... at the end of the season, those nine games will have determined a great deal.


NL WILD CARD

With the Phillies surging ahead in the NL East, the Atlanta Braves lead the Wild Card chase, with San Diego half a game back and the Rockies 2.5 games behind. Like the Padres, the Braves are struggling lately, and they seem determined to not only let the NL East slip away, but the Wild Card also. I will not predict the winner of the Wild Card postseason spot, but I will predict that the Braves will be lucky to win it. With six games remaining against the Phillies, Atlanta will have a rough road ahead of them to hold off the surging Rockies & Giants, along with a resilient Padres team who could tread water and still edge the Braves out.

THE ROCKIES

The good news for Rockies fans is that, as they have done in recent years, they are finishing strong. Very strong. The further good news is that their next six games are against very beatable teams; two sweeps would do wonders for the Rockies' chances. The bad news is two-tiered, I'm afraid: they are going on the road, and the first series is in Los Angeles. Will Dodger Stadium be a Biblical lion's den, where they're sent in to get killed but come out fine the next day? Or will it be like an actual lion's den, where the lions eat you in about ten minutes and then lick your bones over the winter?

Jim Tracy has finally settled on a lineup and a batting order, though, and I believe that will help them on this road trip. This team swept the Padres in their last road series, and the Dodgers are struggling worse than the Padres are. After this road trip, they have three home games against the Giants. A good road trip for the Rockies will make that Giant series crucial to both teams.

NL Awards

I predict that, for the fifth time in their history, the Rockies will have a player lead 2/3 of the Triple Crown stats and fail to win the MVP. Carlos Gonzalez will finish the year leading the league in average and RBI, but will not will not win the MVP, because Coors Field artifically inflated his stats.

I also predict that, for the first time in their history,  the best pitcher in baseball will be wearing a Rockies uniform. Ubaldo Jimenez has had a spectacular season. However, Jimenez will not win the Cy Young award, because Coors Field artificially inflated his stats.

And so, I predict another grumpy "Postseason Awards are Bullcrap" post on this blog very soon. Hopefully, it will be tempered with a "playoff baseball is wonderful" post, but we'll have to wait and see on both of those.

Go Rockies!!!