Thursday, March 31, 2011

Opening Day! Callooh! Callay!

Welcome, Dear Reader(s), to another baseball season at Year of The Beard! I, Ryan Spilborghs' Beard, am pleased to be back, and am very much looking forward to the 2011 baseball season.

I have spent the last few weeks at the Rockies' new home in Scottsdale. As the Rockies begin the process of getting into shape for the regular season, I was in the process of preparing their beardliness, in order to channel as much greatness to the team as possible.

Even as an omniscient Beard, I hesitate to put too much emphasis on spring training results. I have seen plenty of teams have tremendous springs, only to fall flat on their faces once the games count. However, there have been some very positive things to note about the Rockies this spring; I hope you will allow me to relay them to you now.

INJURIES
Cook injured himself posing for this photo.
Rarely does a team make it through Spring Training without some sort of injury, and the Rockies this year are no exception. However, the Rockies' injury situation as they enter the regular season is very positive. There were only two injuries to speak of: suddenly-snakebit Aaron Cook broke his finger, throwing wide-open the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation; and Ian Stewart injured his knee in the first game in a collision with Carlos Gonzalez. Cook will likely miss a good portion of the season, but Stewart may be ready for Opening Day.

All things considered, however, the Rockies lineup looks pretty healthy. With the team's tendency to get off to slow starts (to be kind) in everybody's mind, having their full lineup ready to go on April 1st could be a key to the season.

ROTATION
Even before Cook's injury, the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation was going to be a central theme for this year's spring training. With Ubaldo written in pen as the #1 starter, DLR, Chacin, and Hammel pretty solidly set as the #2-4 guys, the fifth spot this year was a refreshing competition for the guy who pitched the best, not merely the guy who pitched the least-worst. Too often in the Rockies' history have the bottom spots in the rotation gone to the guys who simply pitched well enough to not get cut... but this year, somebody actually won the fifth spot: Esmil Rodgers. 

In 2010, Jhoulys Chacin set the NL record for most times mispronounced.
The Rockies' rotation still does not get much respect nation-wide, and I suppose that they must earn it. While they do not match up with the Phillies or the Giants, the Rockies have a very solid rotation, with five guys who could pretty easily all win ten games, and three that should top fifteen wins. Jhoulys Chacin may very well be a star in the making, folks... keep an eye on him.

LINEUP
I consider it a sign of a very good team when there are no real battles for the starting lineup spots. The Rockies came into spring with pretty much every defensive position set except second base, and that's how they leave spring training.

Second base is still a question, but I have the feeling that both Jonathan Herrera and Jose Lopez will see about equal playing time there. It is a good mix there: Herrera a slick fielding contact hitter and Lopez an adequate defender with plenty of power.

First base will see the return of Todd Helton. A drastically different approach to his back problems has seen Helton have a very good spring. The question is whether that back will hold up... when in previous years Helton pampered it, this year he is working it hard. He may run a greater risk of hurting his back, but then again, he may just strengthen it enough to return to the form we saw in 2009, where he proved that a healthy Todd Helton is still one of the very best hitters in the NL.

Shortstop is, of course, manned by the Rockies' star, Troy Tulowitzki. The only question with Tulo, it seems, is whether he will stay healthy. If he does, there is no limit to what Tulo can do.

Third base is a question mark, not based on who will play there, but on what he will do. Ian Stewart has tons of potential and as much power as anybody in the NL West, but everyone seems frustrated that he has not realized that potential. This is likely Stewart's make-or-break season: realize even a portion of his massive potential (both at the plate and in the field), and he's an All-Star and the Rockies are legitimate contenders... come up short, and he may find himself platooning with Wigginton, or even on the trading block. His injury in the first spring training game makes it tough to judge just where he's at, but I'm sure we will find out soon.

Spilly and me, together again.
The outfield is set, with Dexter Fowler in center, Carlos Gonzalez in left, and Seth Smith/Ryan Spilborghs in right. Smith in RF poses a similar question as does Stewart at 3B: last season, Smith wanted (and earned) a starting job, and then promptly folded once it was given to him. If Smith can demonstrate that last year was a fluke, the Rockies will have a very good outfield. If not, Smith could find himself on the trading block by mid-season.

Catcher was not a question going into spring training, but that didn't stop people from stressing out about it. Chris Ianetta has a great eye and is as strong as an ox, but he seems to have confidence problems and is prone to hellacious slumps at the plate. Without the safety net of a veteran catcher, Iannetta also has a sink-or-swim opportunity in front of him this season.

A pic of Iannetta, added for Mrs. Beard's benefit.
Ty Wigginton will be what the Rockies hoped Melvin Mora would be last season: a professional bat who can hold his own at various spots on the field. Jason Giambi returns for his limited role as an NL designated hitter. And with Herrera/Lopez and Spilborghs/Smith on the bench, the Rockies have some power when they need it in the late innings.

The commitment to keep Giambi on the roster, coupled with the likely platoon at 2B, creates a problem regarding the one big surprise in spring training this year: "Invite him to ST as a favor" CF Willy Tavares had a fantastic, Beard-worthy spring, and could really bring some versatility to the Rockies' lineup. To have his sort of speed on the bench, plus the sort of small-ball bat that the team largely lacks, would be a huge benefit... but the team has committed to so many infielders that there's no spot for Tavares. For Taveras' sake, I hope the Rockies can either trade him or release him, because after the spring he had, he should be on a MLB roster. But for the Rockies' sake, I hope he reports to Colorado Springs, and waits patiently for the Rockies to call him up.

BULLPEN
Anybody who says they can guess what a bullpen will be like during the season based on what they see in spring training is a liar. Bullpens are weird: they are often much more than the sum of their parts, and just as often they are much less. But for what it's worth, the Rockies have some good parts out there. When Matt Daley doesn't make the roster, there's some depth out there. Huston Street seems healthy, and they have at least three other closer-quality arms out there: Morales, Lidstrom, and Belisle. With Paulino, Reynolds, and Betancourt rounding things out, the pieces are all there for a very successful bullpen.

So there you have it, friends. Winter is over. Go Rockies!

2 comments:

Some Guy said...

Does the Beard make any predictions about the Rockies' finish in the NL West and/or the playoffs? Or would that be an inappropriate use of his ability to influence events, like Pete Rose betting on whether Pete Rose was going to bet on a particular game?

Dr Brainsmart said...

The Beard responds:

"Thank you, Some Guy, for your question. I, The Beard, do not care for pre-season predictions, because too much can happen in a baseball season. A baseball season is a universe of variables, and even a Beard who has been to the edges of the universe has a difficult time predicting what happens in between.

However, I do not foresee many major hurdles to the Rockies winning the NL West, other than hurdles they themselves create. Only one team looks prepared to challenge them for the NL West, assuming all teams play more-or-less to their ability.

The Diamondbacks are headed in the right direction, but have a ways to go. They may surprise some fans early on, but may not have the experience to hang in there for a pennant race. The Padres were a surprise last year, but when their pitching tired they didn't have any offense to carry them... the same issues may bother them this season. The Dodgers are always dangerous due to their payroll and the talent it brings, but with Torre out and Mattingly taking his place, they may take a while to come together.

That leaves the Giants. If they have another injury-free year for their rotation and their entire lineup of journeymen all have career years at the plate again, they will of course be a dangerous team. But, everything clicked perfectly into place for the Giants last year, including their little mind-doink of the Rockies with two weeks to play. Good teams getting great breaks often win championships, but rarely (if ever) do they win two in a row. As champs, they are the team to beat... and the Rockies appear up to the challenge.

Based on talent, balance, and experience, the Rockies should be the favorites to win the NL West. After that, as the Giants proved last year... anything can happen.