So the Rockies lost to the D-backs last night. I spent most of the night watching the Avs game, so I didn’t see much of the Rockies but it looks like Francis got knocked around again. So far, we’ve started Francis against Webb twice and gotten two spankings. So because I’m already nice and crabby, I've decided it’s time to rake some old coals. So here’s my take on last season’s NL postseason awards and how the Rockies fared. Yeah, it’s old news, but why the hell not? I've got nothing better to do than write it, and since you're already here, you've obviously got nothing better to do than read it.
MVP: Jimmy Rollins. 2nd place: Matt Holliday
I have no problem with this one. It would have been nice to see Matt win it, but Rollins had a great year, is a great player in all aspects and was a fine choice. I found it encouraging, actually, that defensive play was not minimized here. Philly manager Charlie Manual said, "Holliday had a great season, but every part of J-Roll's game stood out. He was the guy who made us go. I like it man, well deserved." I agree. I just wish the same reasoning applied to all the postseason awards…
Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun. 2nd place: Troy Tulowitzki
This was one of the closest Rookie of the Year votes ever. Ryan Braun had an amazing year at the plate. His fans are quick to point out that had he played an entire season, his stats would have been even better. In fact, his pace for a full season would have resulted in 48 home runs and 149 RBI. Not Too Shabby… if we were talking about fantasy baseball stats, Ryan Braun was clearly the Fantasy Baseball Rookie of the Year, if not of all time. One can’t ignore stats like his, he had a truly historic rookie season at the plate.
But the MVP results show us that a great baseball player is not all about his hitting stats, right? Wrongo... voters evidently threw that criteria out on its wrinkly butt for the ROY. Tulowitzki was the best shortstop in the league, while Braun was not only the worst regular 3B (by far) in 2007, he had one of the worst defensive seasons since the dead ball era. He led the majors in errors (in only 2/3 of a season, remember!), and had the worst fielding percentage and range factor of any infielder in either league. One can't ignore stats like that, either... or so you'd think.
So let’s work this out: Holliday is an above-average defensive player who hit for 2/3 of the Triple Crown, but Rollins’ excellent play in the field and his leadership were the factors that swung voters away from Holliday’s gaudy hitting stats. Fair enough. But for the same reasons, why doesn't Tulo’s defense (statistically even better than Gold Glove winner Rollins, see below), not to mention the leadership he clearly brought to the Rox, outweigh Braun's offensive masterpiece/defensive turd sandwich of a season?
Holliday: 340 avg .405 obp .607 slg
Rollins 296avg .344 obp .531slg
Holliday’s gaps over Rollins: 44/61/76
Braun .324 avg.370 obp .634 slg
Tulo .291 avg .359 obp .479 slg
Braun’s gaps over Tulo: 33/11/155
Turns out that Tulo's hitting stats, too mediocre to get him the ROY, were very similar to Rollins', which were good enough to win him the MVP. Looking at those gaps, Tulo was actually closer to Braun than Rollins was to Holliday in two of the three major hitting percentages. Somebody will inevitably point out Tulo’s home/road splits, but the overblown nature of the "Coors Field effect" in people’s minds is a rant for another cranky day. But advantages like that work both ways: Tulo enjoyed hitting at Coors Field in half his games, while the Hebrew Hammer was hitting in perhaps the best place in the entire Major Leagues: right in front of Prince Fielder.Is there any doubt that hitting in front of a guy like Fielder is going to help your stats quite a bit more than hitting in front of a guy like Yorvit Torrealba? Anybody remember who was hitting in the Brewers' 3-hole before Braun arrived? It was JJ Hardy, and it’s safe to say he really, really enjoyed hitting ahead of Fielder. Check out Hardy’s stats before Braun arrived and snaked that cherry spot in the Brewers’ order.
Hardy’s stats, thru May 25: .314 avg .359 obp .608 slg 15 hr 43 rbi
Braun's stats, after May 26: 324 avg.370 obp .634 slg 34 hr 97 rbi
Hardy's final '07 statistics: 277 avg .323 obp .463 slg 26 hr 80 rbi
Well look at that... when Hardy was in the 3-hole, his stats looked a helluva lot like Braun's! When he lost that spot in the order, his stats became much more pedestrian. If we project Hardy’s pre-May 26 stats to a full year, he’d have ended up with something in the neighborhood of 53hr and 151 rbi. Braun’s projected stats again? 48hr and 149 rbi. Hmmm, imagine that. Now, am I saying that JJ Hardy is as good a hitter as Ryan Braun? Not at all... Hardy's a nice player, but Braun's a stud. However, does hitting in front of Prince Fielder for an entire year inflate your hitting stats? Clearly, the answer is yes. So let’s not accuse Tulowitzki’s hitting of being a product of Coors Field without admitting that Braun’s stats had their own little angel on their shoulder.
Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin. Clint Hurdle: 3rd
I like this choice a lot. Melvin was handed a team even younger than the Rockies, a team that couldn’t really hit a lick, and managed them to the top of the NL West. They won 90 games while being outscored overall… that tells me they won a lot of close games, and they must have had a pretty good manager. Hurdle has become a good manager, but he needs to show voters he can do more than enjoy the ride when his team goes on an incredible win streak before he will be a serious contender for Manager of the Year
Gold Glove award:
SS Rollins over Tulo / 1B Derrek Lee over Todd Helton
The Gold Glove has to be the biggest joke of any postseason award in any major sport. When Rafael Palmeiro wins one in a season he played 130 games as a DH, you know it’s not an award we can take seriously. Tulo had a slightly better season defensively than Rollins did… they both had eleven errors but Tulo had over 100 more total chances. But it’s a popularity contest… people have seen Rollins before, so he gets the votes. Tulo will win his share of these I am sure. I've kind of surprised myself by not being really too upset about this one at all.
Lee over Helton pisses me right off, though. Helton had two errors in 1545 total chances for a .999 fielding percentage. Lee had seven errors in 1259 total chances for .994%. Let’s see here… more chances, fewer errors. Hmmm. Range factor isn’t as telling for 1B as for other positions, but Helton’s was 10.49 while Lee’s was 8.84. Double hmmm. Helton had about as close to a perfect season defensively as you’ll ever see (Youklis did have zero errors at 1B for Boston, with only 2/3 the total chances Helton had), yet the award for defensive excellence goes to Lee. The Gold Glove is a completely retarded award, and this is a great example of why.
--Jim
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